Across the world of talent and work, there are many factors in play that reflect perhaps the most volatile job market we have experienced in business history. The Great Recession of 2008-2009 brought a swift tumble to the labor pool, however, the economic recovery began relatively quickly and “only” hit a peak of 10.6% unemployment (in January 2010). Comparatively, in April 2020, during the earliest and perhaps the most confounding times of the COVID-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate hovered around 14.7% (and considered higher in some circles given the panic and confusion around that period of time).

For all of the horror, unspeakable challenges, and both personal and professional disruptions that we all have faced over the past eighteen months, the labor market’s initial plunge was only the beginning of a series of major issues for the workforce that continue to this day.

In September, U.S. businesses only added 194,000 new jobs, a figure that shocked economists and labor market analysts alike. In addition, however, the true unemployment rate hit 4.8% in September; while this figure may seem like somewhat of a positive note amidst a weak rate of added positions, it’s really just hiding the many disparities that remain across today’s total workforce. And if we really want to dig deeper into how the lowest unemployment rate of the pandemic thus far just masks massive inequalities, there’s another stat that should shake business leaders to the core:

In September alone, 309,000 women (above the age of 20) dropped out of the workforce, according to the U.S. Labor Department. 309,000.

No, that is not a typo. 309,000 talented and hardworking women left the labor market within a 30-day span. That’s 309,000 women who are not part of a so-called “Age of the Worker.” These are women who are hitting pause on their careers due to factors way beyond their control.

Unemployment is low. The economy is thriving despite a Delta variant surge. One miraculous coronavirus vaccine has been approved and in use as a booster, with the two other major shots on their way. However, these same disparities in job growth are also occurring in other segments, such as in black men and both black and Hispanic women.

What is happening here?

The main problem is this: no matter how great the economy looks and no matter how low unemployment rates are, there is a foundational gap between 1) what we conceive the workforce to look like, and, 2) what that actual workforce looks like when broken out into gender, race, and cultural background, due to continued uncertainty in peripheral areas of the market that have a ripple effect on working mothers and people of color.

As we discussed previously here on the Future of Work Exchange, any level of uncertainty in the world of working parents is catastrophic. Any new COVID cluster in a school that eschews masks and precautions forces those parents to pause their professional lives and attend to remote learning. The continued shortage of staffing within daycare and pre-kindergarten facilities is astounding; too many working parents are having to make the difficult choice between their business personas and their roles as parents of young children.

Two years ago, if a third-grader woke up in the morning with a sore throat and runny nose, a parent could chalk it up to seasonal allergies or the common cold and send him/her off to class without a worry. Today, quarantining is disruptive and COVID testing can cause massive delays in a return to the live classroom. While some educational departments are leveraging “Test and Stay” models that enable quicker returns if children are asymptomatic, there are tens of thousands more that are not.

Those workers that are “between” pre-pandemic careers and a more settled return to the workforce are unsure of what is on the horizon. There’s no crystal ball that will tell them if the coming fall and winter seasons will spark yet another COVID surge. Millions of workers that were once toiling in more blue-collar-oriented positions are reevaluating their careers entirely, fighting as hard as they can for better pay, safer working conditions, and more flexibility in how they work before returning to work. Unfortunately, gender- and race-led disparities are caught in the middle of all of this and are suffering as a result.

So, what’s the answer here? It’s not so simple. The fact that organizations have implemented new diversity-led measures for gender diversity (82% of businesses are currently implementing these measures, according to FOWX research), cultural diversity (72%), and generational diversity (65%) speaks volumes about where businesses want to be, however, the hard truth is that they just aren’t there yet…and it’s going to take some time.

There are reasons to be both optimistic and pessimistic. COVID vaccines from Pfizer for 5-to-11-year-olds could be only weeks away, helping to curb some safety concerns regarding live and in-person learning. Not all of those 309,000 women that exited the workforce will remain out of the workforce permanently; between digital staffing outlets (such as The Mom Project) that promote on-demand and diverse talent, and the hiring managers that truly understand that a diverse and inclusive workplace culture is the best culture to build deeper talent pools, things can and certainly will change.

However, if there’s anything we’ve learned over the past eighteen months, it’s that planning for just a few months ahead causes nothing but disappointment in eventual retrospect. Businesses could stand pat in their months-long standoff with workers that are clamoring for enhanced pay, benefits, and working conditions. More COVID hotspots around the country could exacerbate the workforce inequalities that we’ve been facing since March 2020.

The question remains, though: will the “Age of the Worker” truly help those that aren’t just leaving the workforce because of culture or flexibility issues, but rather because they have no choice? The Biden Administration’s $650 billion initiative for childcare programs, universal pre-kindergarten, and the establishment of a robust paid family and medical leave program could be a boon here, although this is a measure that is months away from being approved and finalized. Many parents will choose to vaccinate their children as soon as they’re able to do so, and many will not.

Like everything else that’s occurred within the world of talent and work in this pandemic arena, there’s more ambiguity than anything else. Let’s hope it changes…soon.

Tagged in: Christopher Dwyer, Complex Categories, Contingent Workforce, Diversity, Future of Work, Future of Work Exchange, People