Stop me if you’ve heard the story before: the world is seemingly out of the clutches of an easily-transmissible variant of the novel coronavirus, there is talk from epidemiologists regarding the continued efficacy of vaccines against severe disease, and we begin to think the pandemic is beginning its endgame…but then, a new variant of concern pops up, disrupts both real-world plans and our overall hopes, and we’re left wondering if we’re on the verge of yet another wave of COVID that will upend any plans for a return to normalcy.
Over the past several days, a new variant of the novel coronavirus came to light. The Omicron variant reflects two- or three-times the spike protein mutations that its now-infamous cousin, Delta, brought to the world over the past five or six months, and many questions remain regarding the possibility of the variant’s ability to escape vaccine- or infection-led immunity, as well as its transmissibility factor (in what seems like forever ago, the once-dominant Alpha variant was more transmissible than the original lineage of the virus, while Delta’s rampage was largely a result of its increase transmissibility combined with waning vaccine immunity).
For those of you that are interested in learning more about the ongoing pandemic from a virologist’s perspective (truthfully, it’s quite refreshing to read the analysis of a scientific professional when making business predictions), I suggest you check out Dr. Jon Skylar’s “COVID Transmissions,” which are released several times a week. Yesterday’s edition featured these thoughts regarding Omicron:
For right now, I think it is likely that vaccinated people are still well-protected. People who have received an additional booster dose are probably even better protected. If you have not gone out and gotten a booster, I would say that now is the time—provided your healthcare professional of choice agrees.
If you live in the US or Europe, Omicron is not currently the biggest COVID-19 threat you should worry about. People in the US should be concerned about Thanksgiving, upcoming holidays, and travel, which can spread the virus around the country. People in Europe should consider that there is already a lot of Delta variant SARS-CoV-2 causing a surge in cases in your continent, and that raging fire is a much more clear and present danger to you at this time. Other regions have their own unique problems, but I do not think there is currently any place where Omicron variant infections are the biggest pandemic-related worry. Most of these problems, however, can be addressed with ready availability and uptake of vaccines and boosters, and that’s what the world should continue to focus on.
So, what does it mean for the business arena? Well, the first thing to think of is that this tangle with a new variant isn’t the first rodeo for enterprises; we battled through Alpha and are currently contending with Delta, the latter of which will most likely contribute to higher case numbers due to last week’s Thanksgiving holiday. There are expectations that, if transmissibility of Omicron is even two- or three-times that of Delta, that it will become the predominant strain throughout the next several months. Does this portend a winter surge like 2020-2021? Most likely, and hopefully, not; an uptick of vaccinations and boosters will blunt a winter wave the size of what we collectively experienced last year.
However, we are seeing swift action from governmental agencies and a level of heightened concern from news sources. After the Delta variant ripped through the world in a short period of time, there is an expectation that more rigid measures will be taken to avoid an Omicron surge. International flights are banned to and from several countries, some states (like New York) are doubling-down on mask-wearing no matter vaccination status, and, the WHO (yesterday) stated that the global risk from the new variant was “very high.” Here’s how it could affect the business world in the weeks ahead:
- Initial confusion over specific details (transmissibility, immunity response, etc.) will result in reinstatement of safety guidelines. Travel bans are the first step, and we’ve seen that in spades over the past several days. Epidemiologists have warned that such bans are not always foolproof, as a stealthy virus like this one is almost certainly already circulating in countries that have not yer publicly sequenced cases within their borders. Until there’s more information regarding its supposed increased transmissibility and the effect of vaccines on the variant, businesses will be awash in confusion and be forced to reinstate mask-wearing for all workers (even vaccinated ones) and other NPIs.
- The consistent focus on “scalability” will be exacerbated. While it’ll take at least another week or two before there is more clarity on the variant’s health impact, business leaders must be prepared to scale their staffing up or down based on the colder months ahead. Many, many organizations battled with a winter last year that saw billions of dollars of lost productivity due to the first full cold-weather season in the pandemic. Hiring managers, talent acquisition leads, and HR execs should not necessarily be panicking, but at the very least ensure that talent communities and talent pools are primed for engagement until the uncertainty settles.
- There are many, many unanswered questions regarding the impact of Omicron on the economy. The S&P experienced its worst day in nearly 10 months this past Friday, but was up 1.3% yesterday, mainly due to some reports that the Omicron causes mild symptoms in vaccinated and/or previously-infected persons. While this is a combination of anecdotal evidence and very small datasets, it is nonetheless an encouraging sign for the financial market. However, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies this afternoon regarding the impact of Omicron on the American economy, the very opposite could be true. Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel stating that current vaccines could potentially “struggle” with the variant wasn’t helpful to Tuesday’s markets, either.
- The criticality of “balance” should be at the forefront of every executive’s 2022 planning. Agility has been a way for businesses to both survive and thrive, while consistent and cautious planning is what businesses have long leveraged for the sake of preparedness. The two must converge together in order for the enterprise to weather a possible variant wave; business leaders should institute robust planning for 2022 as continued (i.e., continue planning as if we didn’t face a new variant) but have not just a “Plan B” in place, but rather a series of strategies that could be leveraged if we experience a repeat of last winter. Can return-to-office plans be altered quickly and without disruption? Does the IT infrastructure support a fast move to remote work? If sales execs and other internal stakeholders have resumed traveling, is there an alternative that could work in the name of safety? Business agility promotes real-time responses, while solid planning involves data, information, and intuition. The convergence of the two is the ideal way to meet whatever additional challenges the coronavirus throws our way.
This excellent article at Medscape takes a data-driven approach and reconfirms some elements of the concern while also offering some reassuring evidence. But, the bottom line is this: there’s a couple of more weeks of panic, pondering, concern, and anxiety until the CDC and other agencies better understand the transmissibility and immunity-effect factors. A waiting game, yes, but a critical one.
Regarding the business arena, there’s a generic response, here, as well, that’s worth mentioning: expect the unexpected. Just six months ago, life seemed the most optimistic it had been since January 2020. The Delta variant upended most of those positive emotions and there’s always the possibility that Omicron can, as well. However, if there’s one lesson that we’ve learned since March 2020, it’s this: it’s not necessarily the unexpected scenarios we should be worrying about, but instead just how agile and nimble we can be to react dynamically in the face of whatever occurs over the next several months.
