Across the globe, many countries have begun (or are about to begin) the process of “phased reopenings” of their economies, only three months after the COVID-19 pandemic began. In the United States, some regions have been “open” (albeit in highly-restrictive forms) for several weeks, while states and cities that were hardest-hit (such as New York City, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, etc.) are just now cautiously allowing businesses to reopen.
Although there are many constraints on how these economies are opening (for example, most “non-essential” retailers must begin with curbside pickup before moving to capacity-specific restrictions in later phases), it does signal that nearly all governmental bodies feel confident enough to allow professionals to go back to work. Here are four things to watch as these reopenings kick off:
- Confusion around the “status” of the physical office environment. Nearly three months of remote work have resulted in, amongst other perspectives, mainly two ideas: 1) remote work is incredibly more productive than the “old” means of commuting and interacting in a physical office setting, and, 2) it just doesn’t work for some businesses and only specific functions can operate in a remote capacity. Whatever the cast for the typical business, the reopening of offices offers some confusion: if workers are being productive, can and should they continue work remotely? How do businesses decide, if offices can only hold 25% or 30% of its capacity, which workers must commute in? And, finally, what happens when workers feel they aren’t ready to go back to the old normal, given their safety/health concerns and issues surrounding daycare? Is it a positive sign that offices are reopening? Absolutely, however, it can and will cause confusion for business leaders in workforce planning.
- 2008 repeats itself…somewhat. I have long advocated that the “perfect storm” of the growth of the contingent workforce during the Great Recession was the convergence of two forces: 1) the need for businesses to ramp up post-downturn without the ability to re-hire at original capacity, and, 2) both businesses and independent workers realizing the value of the contingent setup. While businesses will not be in a position to execute mass hiring just yet, they may be in a position to harness the power of freelance talent to help get work done in the short-term. Too, high-expertise individuals who were furloughed or laid off over the past few months, given their experience and industry alignment, will turn to freelancing gigs…which may transform how they think about their careers in the long-term. While we are months away from anticipating just big the growth of the non-employee workforce will be over the course of these unprecedented times, businesses may find that what drove the biggest jumps in utilization for contingent labor will somewhat repeat itself over the course of 2020.
- Co-working spaces may see a resurgence this summer (with an emphasis on more “local” co-working opportunities). While scrolling through my Facebook feed this morning, I noticed some of the targeted advertisements were centered around co-working businesses offering monthly rates for single-space offices. What caught my attention is that this company wasn’t located in Boston, which is about an hour away from my coastal town, but rather a neighboring city that is just a drop further south. The professionals that have thrived and seen their productivity blossom in the remote work environment may take this concept to the next level, especially if they need to leave the house due to children being home for the summer (with many daycares and summer camps closed, an unfortunate reality for many families). There’s no doubt that many of us miss specific elements of the office environment, yet, would rather not commute into a large metropolitan area to satisfy that craving for the sake of social distancing. Many workers may see the inherent value in more localized co-working centers that are closer to home and offer some semblance of pre-pandemic office life.
- Reopening plans, from workforce and productivity perspectives, may take the entire summer to be fully “realized.” Just because many workers are now allowed back into their places of employment does not translate into things being back to normal, nor does it mean that states and regions are fully “reopened.” After three solid months of social distancing, sheltering-in-place, stay-at-home advisories, etc., there is going to be massive hesitancy at all levels of business. Yesterday, NBC News ran an article about New York City’s reopening, which stated that nearly 400,000 workers were expected to have the ability to return to work. However, that doesn’t exactly mean that all of those, or even half, would be trekking into Gotham. The picture the news site ran alongside the story? A commuter walking between two vastly-empty subway cars, most likely captured Monday morning. Governors and mayors are speaking about “phases,” but it should be measured and structured in less broad terms, as it will take weeks beyond initial phased reopening dates for businesses to truly understand where they are in regards to productivity, operational efficiency, and workforce structure.
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