In 2014, we made some bold predictions. Now an even bolder move….. we evaluate and grade them. This is Part 2, here is Part 1.
Since I was behind many of the predictions, I’ve asked Matt York to grade how we did in an interactive two-part discussion.
Last January, our team delivered a webinar entitled, “Procurement 2014: Big Trends & Predictions” where we identified the major procurement and supply management trends for the year and made a number of predictions for 2014 to boot. That was roughly 12 months ago and a lot has happened in the interim. Overall, many of our predictions were spot on, but admittedly some missed the mark. So, before we issue more of our 2015 predictions (something we plan to do very soon), let’s revisit the second set of our 2014 predictions.
2014 PREDICTION: Micro-Market Predictions: We also looked at micro economic trends and made some predictions:
- The first was “Go long on Africa in 2014 and you will be a winner in the long-term. If you are looking for new sources of supply and new locations for operations, now is the time to look at Africa. Problems exist but there is huge upside in the region.”
- We also predicted that an environmental catastrophe would strike somewhere in the first half of 2014, disrupting some industry or industries.
- Lastly, we saw 2014 as the year that 3-D printing would mature into “commercially packaged solutions designed to streamline new product development and dramatically lower costs.” — Andrew Bartolini
How did we do?
- Unfortunately, Africa was in the headlines for all wrong reasons in 2014, making it difficult to see the upside on the continent. Between political volatility and the threat of extremist violence in North and East Africa, as well as the Ebola virus that ravaged West Africa, the continent continued to present challenges for businesses in 2014.
- Regarding Ebola, we correctly predicted that a calamity would impact a region and cause a disturbance for an industry or industries. According to the U.S. Department of State’s website, “some local, regional, and international air carriers have curtailed or temporarily suspended service to or from Ebola-affected countries” in West Africa.
- Lastly, the jury is still out on commercial 3-printing, but it appears that the technologies and practices require more time to mature to become viable enterprise solutions. — Matt York
Final Comments: I would argue that the Africa prediction can’t be judged in one years time. The catastrophe prediction appears correct and 3-D printing was also a prediction that looked out beyond 2014 – there has been some real momentum in the sector and the stocks have done well in a generally poor year. But, I wasn’t talking about stocks, I was talking about a major impact on manufacturing. In certain instances, 3-D printing did as I had predicted but, by and large, the actual impact was both slower to appear and less forceful than I expected. The jury, I would argue, is still out. — Andrew Bartolini
Final Grade on these Predictions: Africa = TBD; Calamity/Ebola = B; 3D Printing = C+
2014 PREDICTION: Contingent Workforce Management Grows: Last year, we predicted that the CWM space would grow by 30% over the next three years. Because of that growth, procurement would need to become more involved in managing CWM, which compelled us to predict that CPOs would use big data to gain greater control over CWM. Moreover, “total talent management” solutions would be used to manage CWM programs, allowing them to gain market momentum. We also predicted that other sources of talent, such as online labor marketplaces and “electronic work-as-a-service” (eWaaS) would expand. Finally, we predicted that CPOs would feel greater pressure to rationalize headcount and consider business process outsourcing (BPO) as a viable alternative to retaining procurement headcount. — Christopher Dwyer
How did we do? To find out, we turn to our landmark State of Contingent Workforce Management 2014 report (available for download here, here, here, or here) for the answers. Based upon the views and experiences of nearly 200 executives in the CWM, Finance, and HR fields, we found that most of our predictions were pretty spot on. For starters, the use of contingent labor grew by 32% in 2014, slightly higher than predicted. But gaining visibility into many aspects of this growth – for example, contingent labor sources, spend, quality, performance, etc. – remains a challenge for many enterprises. As a result, 73% of executives are focusing on business intelligence and analytics to harness the power of big data to better understand and manage the growth of CWM within enterprises.
Our “total talent management” prediction was also correct in that 77% of executives indicated that “it will be a widely-adopted approach for managing all enterprise talent, both traditional and non-traditional.” More than three quarters of enterprises are beginning to incorporate Managed Service Providers (MSP), Recruitment Process Outsourcing (RPO), and Vendor Managed Services (VMS) into a larger strategy for managing both contingent and traditional labor within their workforce. While we correctly predicted that other sources of talent, like personal networks, private talent pools, and social media and social networks, would be tapped to draw more contingent labor to enterprises, other sources of talent, like online market places have yet to catch on. — Matt York
Final Comments: That Chris Dwyer knows his stuff! Anyone interested in this category should definitely consider registering for this webinar that Chris is giving on Feb 17. — Andrew Bartolini
Final Grade on this Prediction: A
2014 PREDICTION: Enterprise Software Goes Mobile: At the beginning of 2014, we predicted that enterprise procurement teams would shift away from desktop computers toward mobile platforms as mobile applications gain greater functionality and allow procurement to perform more of their tasks on the go. Corollaries to this prediction were that work location would no longer be a talent constraint; that talent would continue to migrate to the best opportunities, no matter where they were located; and that worker productivity would increase as a result of the ability to work remotely with access to more robust mobile applications. — Andrew Bartolini
How did we do? For the most part, our predictions were correct. Enterprise procurement teams continued to ride the mobility wave in 2014, taking advantage of advances made in application development to make procurement solutions not just mobile-enabled and ready, but purpose built for mobile platforms. These advances have contributed to an increasingly agile, mobile, remote procurement workforce. However, mobile platforms and applications have not yet completely replaced legacy ERP systems, and still have some ways to go before they can replicate/replace their functionality. — Matt York
Final comments: Just last week, I had an inquiry on Linkedin about mobile procurement suites. Sometimes if you build it, they actually will come. — Andrew Bartolini
Final Grade on this Prediction: A
2014 PREDICTION: Social Bleeds into Business: Our final prediction of 2014 was that social networking capabilities and best practices would continue to merge with business processes and communication methods. As we said last January, “the underlying capabilities and drivers behind the most successful of these social networks can and should have the same impact in business communication and performance, and ultimately reshape the Procure-to-Pay (“P2P”) value chain in the years ahead but starting in 2014.” — Andrew Bartolini
How did we do? Social capabilities and best practices are bleeding into business processes and solutions, although we did not see the paradigm shift we expected to see in 2014. Supply management solution providers are working to integrate cloud, instant messaging, mobility, and shared work spaces into their applications. But more time is needed to refine these capabilities and practices before business networking more closely resembles social networking. — Matt York
Final comments: OK, the prediction was a bold one and frankly, we are not dealing with a bold software industry. But, just wait, in a few years, we’ll all look up and realize that our supply management solutions have slowly but surely adopted many great communication, collaboration, and knowledge management capabilities. furthermore, I am making this prediction for 2015 and every year until it becomes readily apparent to all. This is already happening, albeit slowly. — Andrew Bartolini
Final Grade on this Prediction: B
So there you have it – the seven predictions we made for 2014, revisited and reviewed in 2015. What’s going to happen this year that will impact supply management professionals? Stay tuned as we will soon present our predictions for 2015.
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